Topic: Stateville Correctional Center Closure

Date: May 12, 2008

Time: 6:00 p.m.

Location: Romeoville High School Auditorium

ECONOMY: COMMODITIES, THE NEXT BUBBLE?

Edward H. Boss, Jr., Chief Economist

If the U.S. economy is already in recession, as some economists believe, or even about to enter one, the recent performance of commodity prices would be at variance with that which occurred in similar periods. For example, in each of the last two recessions, which began in 1990 and 2001 respectively, commodity prices showed declines.
While many uncertainties remain, the weak U.S. economy, either in or near a recession, coupled with a weakening in both Europe and Asia may act to subdue demand for basic commodities further. Should these trends continue, the dollar might well strengthen and take the pressure off basic commodity prices, quickly deflating a possible bubble.

REVENUE: APRIL REVENUES JUMP DUE TO PERSONAL INCOME TAX AND FEDERAL SOURCES--REMAINING MONTHS EXPECTED TO STRUGGLE

Jim Muschinske, Revenue Manager

Overall base receipts increased $389 million in April, excluding $1.2 billion in short-term borrowing, reversing what had been a disappointing March. April rebounded with a flourish with exceptionally strong performances from personal income tax as well as federal sources. An extra receipting day likely was key in the monthly jump in receipts.

Through April, overall base receipts were up $953 million. While receipt performance had been mixed, one area that had continued to fare well is gross personal income tax receipts. Through April, receipts were up $771 million, or $879 million on a net of refund basis. While receipts could very well drop over the remainder of the year due to timing as well as economic slowing, a strong year for personal income tax served to bolster what otherwise would be a year void of meaningful growth. Despite the April respite from overall disappointing revenue performance, the remaining months are not anticipated to be very favorable for a number of reasons.