Commission on Government Forecasting and Accountability
HOUSE
C.D. Davidsmeyer, Co-Chair
SENATE
David Koehler, Co-Chair
Skip Navigation Links
Meeting Notice
DATE: April 9, 2024
TIME: 9:00 a.m.
PLACE: Room 409, Capitol Building, Springfield, IL
RE: State Employees’ Group Insurance Program for FY 2025
February 2024 Monthly Briefing
ECONOMY: LONG AND BUMPY PATH
Benjamin L. Varner, Chief Economist

February’s economic results shows the truth of Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell’s statement from October of 2023, “… the path is likely to be bumpy and take some time…” February’s economic data began with a stellar month of employment data but ended with elevated inflation numbers. This flare up in inflation in January led to the market reassessing the most likely path the Federal Reserve will take regarding monetary policy.

REVENUE: REVENUES REBOUND NICELY IN FEBRUARY
Eric Noggle, Revenue Manager

After experiencing a significant, yet expected, drop in revenues last month due to the timing of a FY 2023 revenue transfer, revenues deposited into the State’s General Fund rose 11.7% in February. While February is, historically, one of the weaker revenue months of the year, the $362 million increase this month provides a welcomed revenue boost to State coffers as Illinois heads into the larger revenue months involving the volatile income tax final payment season…
************************
…After last month’s $696 decline in overall receipts, General Funds Revenue totals fell from a year-over-year increase of $753 million to growth of only $56 million. However, February’s overall increase of $362 million has helped replenish these previous gains to an eight-month total growth value of $418 million.