Commission on Government Forecasting and Accountability
HOUSE
Richard Myers, Co-Chairman
SENATE
Jeffrey Schoenberg, Co-Chairman
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FACILITY CLOSURE MEETINGS - IDOT
IDOT MEETING: July 31, 2008 at 5:00 p.m.
LOCATION: Room 212 Capitol Building
FACILITY CLOSURE MEETINGS - PONTIAC
PONTIAC MEETING: August 12, 2008 at 5:00 p.m.
LOCATION: Township High School,
1100 Indiana Ave, Pontiac
June 2008 Monthly Revenue Briefing
FACILITY CLOSURE UPDATE
Mike Moore, Revenue Analyst

IDOT Division of Traffic Safety: The Department of Transportation notified the Commission on May 5, 2008 that the Division of Traffic Safety would be moved to Southern Illinois. The Commission received the “Recommendation for Closure” for the transfer of the Division of Traffic Safety to Harrisburg, Illinois on July 1, 2008. A public hearing has been scheduled for Thursday, July 31, 2008 at 5:00 p.m. in Room 212 of the Capitol Building to hear testimony regarding this transfer. By statute the Commission has until September 11, 2008 to issue an advisory opinion.

Pontiac Correctional Center: The Department of Corrections notified the Commission on May 6, 2008 that Pontiac Correctional Center would be closed. The “Recommendation of Closure” for the Pontiac Correctional Center was due on July 2, 2008. The hearing for Pontiac Correctional Center will be held on Tuesday, August 12, 2008 at 5:00 p.m. It will be held at the Pontiac Township High School, located at 1100 East Indiana Avenue, Pontiac, Illinois.

REVENUE: BASE FY 2008 REVENUE GROWTH $1.019 BILLION: INCOME TAXES BUOY RECEIPTS AS OTHER REVENUES EXPERIENCE LACKLUSTER YEAR
Jim Muschinske, Revenue Manager

YEAR END
Excluding short-term borrowing and other cash flow transfers, overall base receipts were up $1.019 billion, or 3.6% in FY 2008. To put the year’s growth into some sort of context, since the overall long-term growth average is 4-5% [depending on the time period], the fiscal year will be remembered as being unspectacular. In fact, if it weren’t for the continued strength of personal income tax, the year could have been disastrous.

Of the just over $1 billion in growth, gross personal income tax represented $763 million. And, since the refund percentage in FY 2008 was lowered, on a net of refund basis, personal income tax resulted in $912 million, or almost 90% of the yearly increase. Certainly, a strong year for personal income tax served to bolster what otherwise would be a year void of any meaningful growth.

REVIEW OF THE FY 2008 REVENUE ESTIMATE
In total, actual revenues came in $104 million higher than CGFA had predicted, and $139 million more than the GOMB. Taken in context of total revenues, both agencies were only off by less than one-half of one-percent.

ECONOMY: INFLATION CONCERNS CAUSE FED TO HOLD RATES STABLE
Edward H. Boss, Jr., Chief Economist

The Federal Reserve's decision to hold key monetary interest rates unchanged in June was sparked by shifting its emphasis from economic growth concerns to rising inflationary pressures, reversing nine months over which it was dealing with a housing crisis, rising foreclosures, a declining dollar and credit crises. With inflation now taking center stage and prospects for further upward price pressures, expectations are that the next Federal Reserve move on interest rates will be on the upside.