Commission on Government Forecasting and Accountability
HOUSE
C.D. Davidsmeyer, Co-Chair
SENATE
David Koehler, Co-Chair
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April 2024 Monthly Briefing
U.S. ECONOMY SLOWS BUT REMAINS ON SOLID GROUND
Benjamin L. Varner, Chief Economist

Last week, the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis released economic results for the 1st quarter of 2024. Real gross domestic product (GDP), which adjusts for inflation, slowed to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1.6%. While headline growth was a little disappointing, looking into the individual components that make up GDP revealed a more encouraging picture of the U.S. economy.

APRIL REVENUES RISE ON STRENGTH OF INDIVIDUAL INCOME TAX RECEIPTS BUT GAINS DAMPENED BY WEAKER CORPORATE INCOME TAX COLLECTIONS
Eric Noggle, Revenue Manager

In the important revenue month of April, General Funds receipts totaled $6.566 billion, a $373 million or +6.0% increase over last April. While this is welcomed growth to State coffers, the overall increase seen this month is largely in line with the Commission’s latest forecast. In other words, there is no “April Surprise” from final income tax payments contained in this month’s numbers that will significantly modify this year’s revenue outlook.
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Incorporating April’s revenues, General Funds receipts now total $44.2 billion for FY 2024 with two months remaining in the fiscal year. This figure is $1.203 billion or 2.8% above last year’s ten-month total.